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Welcome to a World of Uncertainties! Hello everyone and welcome to our latest edition, your go-to source for in-depth analysis of the world’s most pressing issues. As 2025 unfolds, a second Trump administration is already reshaping international relations, sparking uncertainty across Europe, Asia, and beyond. Will the U.S. remain a steadfast NATO ally, or is Europe on its own when it comes to security? We also turn our focus to Germany’s federal elections, where the results are sending ripples through European politics. Meanwhile, Cuba’s small enterprises fight for survival in a centralized economy, Africa balances industrialization with climate commitments, and China’s environmental strategy remains a complex puzzle. On a different note, we celebrate the power of women in global diplomacy, as highlighted at the Munich Security Conference Women’s Breakfast, and dive into a must-read book recommendation on Iran’s internal and external struggles. In an era of uncertainty, understanding these key developments is more crucial than ever. Stay informed, stay engaged, and enjoy this issue!

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POLITICAL ANALYSIS

American Unpredictability and its Consequences for Indian Foreign Policy

Uncertain Times Ahead: As President Trump's unpredictable policies continue to unfold, India faces growing challenges in trade, tariffs, and broader foreign relations. How will these shifting dynamics shape the future of India's global standing? Read it here

THE WORLD WATCHES TRUMP 2.0

Five in-depth analyses explore how Trump’s return shapes global power shifts - affecting Ukraine, Iran, Turkey, political extremism, and more. Uncover the key dynamics and challenges reshaping international relations in this unpredictable new era.

Quick Take: Ukraine's View Ukraine’s uncertain future: Will Trump’s second term reshape U.S. support or shift global alliances? Read more

Quick Take: Africa's View Unlocking Africa’s potential: Economic growth, trade, and investment shifts set to reshape future opportunities. Read more

Quick Take: Iran's View Iran fears Trump’s return: Maximum pressure or a reluctant deal, but no room for compromise. Read more

Quick Take: South America's View Trump and Milei’s rise: Unpacking the political shift, blind spots, and the rise of extremism. Read more

Quick Take: Turkey's View Turkey’s shifting alliances: How a second Trump term could reshape its foreign policy and U.S. ties. Read more

VIDEO

Surviving Against the Odds: The Struggles of Cuban Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises How do Cuban micro-, small, and medium-sized enterprises survive in a centralized economy? Explore their origins, regulations, and the daily challenges they face in thriving against all odds.

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RECOMMENDED READINGS

International Perspectives on European Security under Trump 2.0 With the second Trump presidency, the new EU Commission must navigate a shifting transatlantic security landscape. Will the U.S. continue its commitment to NATO? How should Europe respond to changing military priorities and geopolitical instability? The Hanns Seidel Foundation asked international experts about the biggest risks and the urgent steps the EU must take to strengthen its own defense and security policy - for the English version of all comments, scroll down and open the English comment fields here.

COUNTRY PERSPECTIVES ON THE GERMAN FEDERAL ELECTION

Germany’s election shakes Europe: Benelux, Poland, and France closely watching shifts in power, economic concerns, and future opportunities. From Merz’s rise to UK relations, explore how these political changes will redefine EU stability, international ties, and global dynamics.

View from BeNeLux Benelux watched Germany’s election closely, weighing its impact on the EU and regional stability. Read more

View from France With Berlin’s government stabilizing, France prepares to reengage on key bilateral, European, and global issues. Read more

View from Poland Poland sees Germany’s election as a backlash against the traffic light coalition and economic woes. Read more

View from the UK Germany’s 2025 election: Merz’s rise, CDU/CSU’s comeback, and new opportunities for German-UK relations. Read more

SHORT ARTICLE

China's climate policy: a two-sided story China’s climate policy may seem complex at first glance, but beneath the surface, a common set of forces shapes both its domestic and international strategies. Discover the hidden dynamics driving China’s approach to global climate challenges. Read full analysis here

FROM OUR GALLERY Munich Security Conference Women's Breakfast 2025

Strong Women Shaping the World: A Powerful Message from MSC The world once again gathered for the Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany. A century ago, female experts would have been absent from such an event - thankfully, times have changed! The message from the Women’s Breakfast, organized by the Bavarian State Chancellery and HSS, was clear and powerful: Strong women are shaping the world.

POLITICAL ANALYSIS

Industrialization and Climate Protection in Africa Is Africa’s development at odds with global climate goals? Explore the tension through Kenya’s example, uncovering the complex conflicts between national growth ambitions and international climate commitments in this eye-opening analysis of Africa’s environmental and economic future. Read here!

A MUST-READ BOOK RECOMMENDATION

Book Description This book offers fresh insights into Iran’s intertwined internal and external challenges. Since 2017/18, revolutionary protests, culminating in the 2022 "Woman, Life, Freedom" uprisings, signal a deepening crisis—economic, ecological, gender, and political—pushing state and society toward collision. Externally, Iran’s strategy of managed conflict with the West, bolstered by opaque China-Russia ties, is faltering. The Middle East war post-October 7, 2023, triggered a historic collapse of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” weakening its power and credibility. Now, 46 years after its founding, the Islamic Republic faces an existential crisis, increasingly resembling an emperor without clothes, both at home and abroad.

BEST OF SOCIAL MEDIA

HSS El Salvador #HSSElSalvador | 126 new leaders graduate from the Central American Integration Diploma, driving unity and progress in the region. 🎓🌍🤝 Facebook HSS HQ International guests from Bolivia, India, Jordan, Colombia, Moldova, and Tanzania in Munich and Berlin, focusing on the German Federal election. LinkedIn HSS Berlin Without you, it won’t work! 🗳️✨ Use your vote to shape the future - because democracy isn’t guaranteed. Stand up for freedom! Instagram

WHO IS...?

...Adriaan Kühn? Adriaan is a lecturer of Political Science and International Relations at University Francisco de Vitoria in Madrid, Spain. He also serves as UFV’s Director of the Robert Schuman Institute for European Studies. Get in touch with him

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